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My goal is to keep the economic expansion on a sound footing that can be sustained for as long as possible. The last thing any of us want is to undermine the hard-won gains we've made since the dark days of andwhen it seemed like the U. Therefore, we're in the process of normalization. And we announced that we expect that economic conditions will warrant further gradual increases in the future. These are not the words of a Fed President willing to let growth run. He is on the same page as Dudley. It is stunning that markets are not taking these words more seriously.
Douradox don't know if it was too many times crying wolf, but we have hit a point where markets are ignoring extremely hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials. The Fed seems to have lost credibility, and I fear that douraados the market finally realizes the Fed might in fact follow words with deeds, an abrupt repricing of financial assets will be on deck. As we pointed out last weekend, you have been warned, and the Fed could mean business. In this week's ib, we would like to reiterate our call to start playing defense credit-wise. Credit in some segments of the market has moved in earnest from expensive to very expensive.
We continue to favor style over substance, quality that is, over yield chasing from a tactical perspective. The relentless flattening of the US yield curve shows that in the current inning of the credit cycle, and with a Fed determined in continuing with Lookinf hiking path, from a risk-reward perspective, we believe long duration Investment Grade still dourafos support to the asset class and not only from a fund flows perspective with retail joining late the Looking for woman in dourados party. On Lookibg note, the "Trumpflation" narrative has now truly faded to the extent that the deflation trade du jour, long US Treasuries the long end Looking for woman in dourados is is back with a vengeance, while inflation expectations have been dwindling on the back of weaker oil prices after all they still remain "expectations" wpman our central bankers perspective.
When it comes to us sticking our neck out and praising the Investment Grade long duration credit game, we were pleased Free casual sex in graham ok 73437 read that UBS in its recent Macro Keys douraddos from the 21st of June entitled "Is the high-yield rally hitting a wall? Fast forward to today and investors Looikng downplaying the likelihood of fiscal stimulus. Global credit impulses have fallen sharply. Consumer delinquencies are rising, raising doubts about Loiking health of US consumer balance sheets.
And further declines in oil are leading investors to question the state of global demand weakness, not only US shale oversupply. Yet credit is holding in, admittedly better than we anticipated, given an uptick in macro data disappointments. Investors have settled on the view that growth is still good enough to keep credit spreads stable and earn carry. We still believe investors are more comfortable with credit risk than duration risk. But is this a prudent risk to hold? Remember, investments should be judged by what is priced into markets and by the distribution of outcomes around what is priced. Here, our view remains that US high-yield continues to price-in too much good news.
Put simply, US high-yield spreads relative to US investment-grade spreads imply a stable mid-cycle environment, akin to or However, underlying credit signals we track remain moderately weaker than those in prior periods, in terms of higher credit-based recession probabilities, weak economy-wide corporate earnings, and initial signs of non-bank liquidity tightening. There are perhaps nascent signs of fatigue already building. High-yield spreads are effectively unchanged since February. This is in contrast to an equity market that continues to register new highs.
HY energy spreads have widened as lower oil prices increase default risks. What should investors do? We recommend investors take advantage of underpriced credit risk to rotate further into longer-duration US investment-grade over US high-yield. Absolute returns for US IG will not be as strong going forward, as declines in Treasury yields may have moved too far, too fast. But we expect relative outperformance vs. We also recommend buying put options on HY ETFs, as short-dated implied volatility has collapsed to near record-lows. How could we be wrong? An increase in US tax reform odds could be an upside surprise, given a market underwhelmed with Washington politics.
Lastly, a new source of demand from US insurance companies due to changes in capital requirements could boost high-yield further. This latter factor is significant enough to matter and has not received enough attention in our view. Hence we address this upside risk to credit specifically in the third section of our piece. How expensive are current high-yield valuations? US high-yield spreads are bps, a mere bps wider than US investment-grade spreads of bps Figure 2. You will get a shock of a lifetime tomorrow,a good xxx If you break the chain you will be cursed with relationship problems for the next x years.
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